Quick start
Go from signing in to your first forecast and a later update.
1. Sign in
Open Plura and choose Google or Telegram. Once signed in, you can save forecasts, review your personal history, and receive an accuracy result.
2. Find an event you understand
For your first attempt, choose a question whose conditions are easy for you to verify. Before answering, check:
- the exact meaning of the “YES” outcome;
- the description and exceptions;
- the closing time;
- the source used to determine the result;
- the event’s current state.
Learn more in how to read an event.
3. Enter your probability
Choose a number from 1% to 99%.
| Value | How to read it |
|---|---|
| 20% | The outcome is possible but unlikely |
| 50% | Both outcomes are about equally plausible |
| 80% | The outcome is likely but not guaranteed |
Select Submit forecast. After server confirmation, the value becomes your current forecast.
4. Update when the facts change
If circumstances change, choose a new number and submit an update. Earlier values stay in your history. Leave at least a few seconds between accepted updates.
Do not copy the chart automatically
Consensus is a useful reference, but your forecast should represent your own assessment of the available facts.
5. Return after the event ends
Once the outcome is confirmed, Plura closes new submissions and shows your result. Learn how it is calculated.