Events and outcomes
Learn how to read an event’s question, conditions, dates, and state before forecasting.
Every Plura event is a verifiable question with two possible outcomes: YES or NO. A good forecast starts with reading that question correctly.
What to check
- Question. It defines what must happen for a “YES” outcome.
- Description. It may contain clarifications, exceptions, and rules for edge cases.
- Closing time. New forecasts are no longer accepted after this point.
- Outcome source. An official report, public statement, or another verifiable source.
- State. It tells you whether you can submit a forecast now.
Event states
| State | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Open | You can add or update a forecast |
| Closed | New values are disabled while the outcome is checked |
| Resolved | The “YES” or “NO” outcome has been confirmed |
| Cancelled | No unambiguous outcome can be determined; no score is published |
How the outcome is determined
The conditions and source should be known in advance. After the event ends, the responsible team checks the stated source and records the outcome. If the rules cannot be applied unambiguously, the event should be cancelled rather than assigned an invented result.
Read the conditions before answering
A headline can be short. The description defines the event’s exact boundaries and takes precedence over assumptions about what it means.
Categories, search, and the activity feed help you discover events by topic and recent updates. User-submitted events are outside this help center’s current scope.