Frequently asked questions
Short answers about forecasts, outcomes, accuracy, discovery, and sign-in.
Yes. Submit a new probability while the event is open. It becomes current, while earlier values remain in your history.
Absolute certainty is rarely justified. The limit preserves room for uncertainty and reduces the harm of an accidental extreme value.
No. The system considers the probability and how long it remained active. A useful revision after new evidence can improve your result.
A late forecast has little time coverage. It affects only the short period before closing and does not replace the earlier history.
New values are disabled. After the stated source is checked, the event is marked “YES”, “NO”, or cancelled if no unambiguous conclusion is possible.
Accuracy can only be evaluated against an unambiguous real outcome. Cancellation neither adds nor subtracts points.
Ranked status requires at least 20 resolved events and average coverage of at least 50%.
Check your sign-in, the event state, and that the value is from 1% to 99%. If you just submitted an update, wait a few seconds and try again.
Search using words from the question, browse categories, or use the activity feed. Always open the full description before answering.
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