How forecasts work
Current probability, immutable update history, and honest calibration.
A forecast is your estimate of the probability of a “YES” outcome at a specific moment. The allowed range is 1% to 99%, inclusive.
One current forecast
Each person has one current value for an event. A successfully submitted update becomes current, but it does not erase the previous value.
10:00 — 45%
14:30 — 60%
18:10 — 52%Every entry receives a server timestamp. The past cannot be rewritten or deleted, so the final result can be reproduced and checked.
Choosing a number
- 1–20%: the outcome is possible but requires an unlikely path.
- 40–60%: the available evidence does not clearly favor either outcome.
- 80–99%: the outcome is very likely, but uncertainty still exists.
Avoid 99% based only on a strong feeling. High confidence should be backed by equally strong evidence.
When to update
Revise your forecast when news, a report, or another reliable fact truly changes your estimate. Repeated submissions without new information do not improve accuracy. The server also limits updates sent too quickly.
Timing matters
A new value affects only the period after it was submitted. A correct late forecast does not erase the earlier history.
After an event closes, new values are disabled. A cancelled event keeps its history, but no accuracy result is published.