01
Read the contract
Start with the exact question, deadline, YES criteria and the named public source. If the rules are unclear, the number is meaningless.
Question · deadline · source
Interactive guidePLURA field guide · 01
Turn uncertainty into a useful number.
PLURA gives every real-world question a clear frame: what counts, when it closes, how it resolves and what the crowd currently believes. You publish a probability and can update it as new evidence arrives.
No account or funds are used in this guide.
Rules first
Updates welcome
Objective result
Live signal mapQuestion open
Will the event happen before the deadline?
Crowd forecast61%
Your estimate68%
Market price64%
Resolution source locked before trading
One question. Three signals. One verifiable result.
Free
Free, and not a bet
A forecast on PLURA costs nothing: you state a probability, you don't stake money. There are no deposits, wallets or balances; signing in only keeps your track record. Pro analytics is an optional add-on nobody has to buy.
From question to result
The whole system in four moves
A good prediction market is not a poll. It is a repeatable process that turns dispersed information into a probability and then checks that probability against reality.
02
State your probability
Choose a number from 1% to 99%. A forecast records what you believe, and you can revise it any time new evidence appears.
Your honest number
03
Update on evidence
New data should move your number. PLURA keeps the history, so early, well-maintained forecasts carry more useful signal than a last-minute guess.
Evidence · revision · coverage
04
Resolve and learn
After the deadline, the stated source determines YES or NO, and forecast accuracy feeds the leaderboard and your track record.
Outcome · accuracy · score
Two ways to participate
A forecast is not the same as the consensus
They share a question and a probability scale, but answer different personal goals. Keeping them separate makes the product easier to understand and the data more useful.
You can update a forecast as often as you like: what counts is which probability you held and for how long.
Publish a forecast
Say how likely you think YES is. No stake is required. Your probability can be updated and, after resolution, contributes to forecast skill and league standings.
- Measured by calibration and relative accuracy
- Rewards early, maintained coverage
- Builds a long-term forecasting track record
Follow the consensus
The community median updates with every forecast. Compare your estimate with the crowd and update it when new facts appear.
- Moves with every forecast the crowd submits
- Shows the current community median
- A quick check before you commit your own number
Probability workshop
Move the inputs. Watch the logic respond.
This training question uses the same core mechanics as PLURA: binary probabilities, time coverage, Brier accuracy and share-price estimates.
Sport · closes 01.12.2027Training market
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2028 European Championship?
- Resolves YES if
- Ukraine is officially listed among the qualified teams before the deadline.
- Primary source
- UEFA competition records
68%
NO50%YES
Use your honest estimate—not the number that feels safer after the fact.
82%
LateEarly
Earlier forecasts cover more of the open window. Later updates still improve accuracy from that point forward.
Test the eventual outcome
How forecast skill is measured
Accuracy matters. So does when you knew it.
PLURA scores the probability that was active during each part of the question window. This discourages hindsight and rewards people who forecast early, stay current and outperform the reference crowd over many questions.
Brier
Probability accuracy
A 70% forecast that resolves YES is better than 55%, but worse than 90%. Confident mistakes are penalized more.
Coverage
Time in market
Every version of your forecast is weighted by how long it stood. An early view carries more evidence than a final-minute entry.
Relative
Fair comparison
Your score is compared with the crowd reference over the same periods, so a hard question is judged in context.
20 + 50%
Season standing
Current season eligibility requires forecasts on 20 events and at least 50% average time coverage.
Plain-language formula
points = 100 × (crowd error − your error)
Calculated across time, then accumulated across the fixed set of season questions. Positive means you beat the reference; negative means the reference was better.
What the leaderboard is trying to reveal
One lucky call is noise. A broad record of well-calibrated probabilities is skill. The season therefore values coverage across questions and keeps the event set fixed for every participant.
Forecast like a researcher
Four habits that beat confident guessing
The best workflow is simple enough to repeat on every question.
01
Start with the base rate
Ask how often similar events happened before looking for reasons this case is special.
02
Break the question apart
List the steps that must happen, the blockers and the evidence that would change your mind.
03
Seek disagreement
Compare independent sources and the strongest case against your current estimate.
04
Update, do not defend
A changed probability is evidence of learning. Record the new number when the world changes.
Common questions
The short answers
Do I need a balance to make a forecast?+
No. Forecasting is free; PLURA has no balances or deposits.
Why can my probability differ from the crowd?+
They measure related but different things. Your forecast is your own best estimate; the crowd number is the current median of everyone’s forecasts.
Can I change my mind?+
Yes. Update whenever meaningful evidence arrives. PLURA preserves the timeline and scores each forecast version for the time it was active.
What makes a question trustworthy?+
A precise deadline, unambiguous YES/NO criteria and a named public resolution source. Those rules must exist before participation begins.
Why not simply predict 99%?+
Because scoring rewards honest probabilities. A confident correct call scores well, but a confident mistake is much worse than a calibrated uncertain forecast.
Your first forecast takes one minute
Choose a question you understand.
Read the rules, name your probability, save the forecast and return when the evidence changes.